Economic Insights
Mortgage rates edge lower from last week; 30-year fixed averages 7.12% as markets await Fed
Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 6:01 AM
Where rates stand today
Rates pulled back over the past week in the rates.now lender network, though they remain higher than a month ago. As of Friday, Oct. 23, national averages at 100 price/zero points were:
- 30-year fixed (conventional): 7.12% (APR 7.16%), down 26 bps from a week ago (7.38%); up 23 bps over the past month.
- 15-year fixed (conventional): 6.59% (APR 6.66%), down 27 bps from a week ago (6.86%); up 25 bps over the past month.
- FHA 30-year: 6.66% (APR 7.42%), down 26 bps from a week ago (6.92%); up 28 bps over the past month.
- VA 30-year: 6.72% (APR 6.96%), down 24 bps from a week ago (6.96%); up 27 bps over the past month.
Early Monday, the bond tone is slightly firmer, which is mildly supportive for rate sheets at the open, but intraday mortgage pricing will track mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and Treasury moves.
What’s moving the market
Treasury yields are a touch lower to start the week: the 10-year is around 4.97%–4.98% (down roughly 1–2 bps on the day) and the 30-year is near 5.30%, also modestly lower. The immediate focus is Wednesday’s FOMC decision, where markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold its target range at 3.75%–4.00%. Even so, traders still assign meaningful odds to a December hike, keeping longer-dated yields—and mortgage pricing—sensitive to incoming data and Fed messaging.
Recent inflation pressure had pushed the 10-year above 5.3% earlier in October; yields have since eased as hike odds for the near term were pared back and a risk-off tone in equities lent support to Treasuries. Still, elevated oil prices and sticky inflation concerns are limiting the rally, leaving long-term rates near historically high levels.
The outlook
Volatility risk is elevated this week. Beyond the Fed decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference on Wednesday, Thursday brings a heavy data slate: Q3 GDP, September PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred gauge), and weekly jobless claims. A “hold” paired with hawkish language that keeps the door open to December could keep the 10-year near 5% and cap mortgage-rate improvement. Conversely, softer PCE or a cooler growth read could extend the recent pullback in yields and support coupon prices.
Remember, mortgage rates key off MBS and the 10-year much more than the Fed’s overnight rate. With the 10-year still near 5% and the 30-year near 5.30%, mortgage financing costs remain vulnerable to quick swings around headlines.
What it means for borrowers
- Closing soon (about a week): Consider locking to protect last week’s improvement ahead of Wednesday–Thursday event risk.
- Longer timelines: Floating can pay off if data softens, but set a trigger to lock on intraday rallies and be mindful of potential negative reprices during volatile sessions.
- Program choice: The recent dip narrowed rate sheets, but FHA and VA averages still price below conventional for many credit profiles; compare across programs.
- Points and buydowns: Today’s averages reflect zero points; if you plan to hold the loan, evaluate permanent buydowns versus temporary 2/1 options based on break-even.
- Be ready: Monitor lender updates around the Fed and PCE—midday reprices are common when MBS move quickly.








